The planning delegation forecasts an increase in national growth to 2.7%

The High Planning Commission confirmed that national economic growth is expected to reach 2.7% during the second quarter of 2024, compared to 2.3% during the same period of the previous year.

The commission explained, in a summary of the economic situation bulletin for the first quarter of 2024 and the forecast for the second quarter of 2024, that this is attributed to an increase in the added value of non-agricultural activities, which is expected to register a growth of 3 .7% year-on-year. The commission also indicated that secondary production branches will continue their upward trend, with an estimated growth rate of 5.3%, thanks to the continued recovery of mining and construction industries.

The same source added that it is expected that industrial processing activities will continue to perform well, benefiting from the growing external demand for chemicals and transport equipment, highlighting the relative slowdown in their growth compared to the beginning of the year, due to the decline in activities in the textile and food industry sectors.

As for the services sector, its growth rate should remain around 3%, mainly supported by accommodation activities and non-commercial services.

Therefore, it is expected that external demand directed towards Morocco will gradually improve, which will help reduce the negative contribution of net external demand to economic growth to minus 3.1 points instead of minus 3.9 points in the previous quarter.

Exports are expected to increase by 9.1%, benefiting from the recovery in foreign demand, particularly from Europe. Imports, meanwhile, are expected to increase by 14.3% due to the expected increase in food purchases and demand for capital goods.

It is expected, during the second quarter of 2024, that domestic demand will remain the main driver of the national economy, with an improvement in purchasing power resulting from falling inflation and the growing dependence of economies that will increase household consumption estimated at 2.6%.

Investment spending is also expected to maintain momentum due to increased government spending and continued growth in business investment, despite falling import prices of industrial capital goods.

On the other hand, the decline in household investment in housing is expected to continue due to higher borrowing costs compared to the period before 2022.

Overall, taking into account the projected decline in agricultural value added of 4.1%, national economic growth is expected to reach 2.7% during the second quarter of 2024, compared to 2.3% during the same period of the previous year.

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