Financial investors torn between a status quo and a reduction in the key rate
This article was automatically translated from HIBAPRESS, the Arabic version:
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Hibapress
Financial investors remain torn between a status quo and a cut in the Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) key rate, as the monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 17 approaches, according to a survey conducted by Attijari Global Research (AGR).
The probability of a status quo of the key rate stands at 55%, compared to 43% for a reduction of 25 basis points (pbs), specifies AGR in its recent “Research report – Strategy”, emphasizing that this survey was carried out among a sample of 35 investors considered among the most influential in the Moroccan financial market.
By category of investors, the analysis of the responses reveals that “Local Institutionals” attribute a probability of 52% to the scenario of a status quo of the key rate, compared to 48% for a reduction of 25 bps.
The “Reference Players”, for their part, grant a probability of 66% to a stable key rate, compared to 34% for a reduction of 25 bps.
Concerning “Individual Persons”, they grant a probability of 57% to a reduction in the key rate of 25 bps, compared to 29% for a status quo. For this category, the probability of a 50 bps decline is 14%.
Furthermore, “Foreign” investors grant a probability of 70% to maintaining the key rate stable, compared to 30% for a reduction of 25 bps.