Advice from Bank Al-Maghrib: A new status quo expected on the key rate


A new status quo is expected on the key rate at the next Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) Board, said Tuesday in Casablanca, the Equity & Market director of BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR), Dounia Filali.

Speaking at the first conference of the 5th edition of the annual webinar cycle on the results and prospects of listed companies, organized by the Casablanca Stock Exchange and the Professional Association of Brokerage Companies (APSB), Ms. Filali explained the maintenance of the key rate by “the current economic situation marked by a slowdown in growth and a deceleration in inflation”. And added that the economic growth rate should improve over the coming years to reach 6% by 2035, supported by infrastructure projects and the advent of CAN 2025 and the 2030 World Cup. .

In his intervention on the subject “Growth potential vs. real growth, when will transmission take place? “, the expert noted that exports continue to increase, with a trade deficit representing around 20% of GDP and comfortable foreign exchange reserves at 360 billion dirhams.

At the same time, she noted that Moroccan industry has undergone a remarkable evolution, moving from an economy focused on traditional sectors to diversification towards industries with higher added value.

In addition, Ms. Filali noted a recovery in internal demand, supported by the easing of inflationary pressures, the strengthening of purchasing power with the launch of household aid (social and housing) and the increase in income. economic entities.

Overall, she said, despite economic and social challenges, the Kingdom demonstrates remarkable resilience and an ability to transform its economy to adapt to the demands of the global market, which positions it on a trajectory of long-term sustainable growth.

In another wake, the analysis and research manager of the stockbroking company MSIN, Naoufal Aouragh, indicated in his intervention on “Cement sector: LafargeHolcim & Ciments du Maroc”, that MSIN expects for the next five years, average annual growth cement sales by 4.8%, to reach 15.8 million tonnes in 2028.

Regarding listed companies in the sector, Mr. Aouragh said that LafargeHolcim posted growth of 2.8% in its turnover in 2023, supported by an increase in exports to African countries and optimization of production costs.

For its part, Ciments du Maroc, the second largest capitalization in the sector, went through two difficult years (2022 and 2023), but should benefit from a more favorable economic context from 2024, he noted. Furthermore, Mr. Aouragh recommends keeping the two securities in investment portfolios, with price targets suggested at 2,171 dirhams for LafargeHolcim and 1,954 dirhams for Ciments du Maroc, subject to in-depth analyzes based on valuation methods.

This cycle of webinars is part of the actions carried out by the Casablanca Stock Exchange and the APSB to promote the market, by shedding light on subjects which interest both listed companies and investors.

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