HIBAPRESS
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth for 2025 to 3.2 percent on Tuesday, compared to 3 percent in its previous estimates, while keeping its forecast for 2026 stable at 3.1 percent.
The Fund explained in its semi-annual report on the World Economic Outlook (WEO) that the global economy is experiencing a "difficult adaptation phase" with a new economic reality characterized by uncertainty and policy fluctuations, noting that the world is witnessing a reshaping of the trade and investment map due to geopolitical shifts and new economic policies.
The report indicated that some strict tariffs have been eased as a result of subsequent agreements and settlements, but the overall economic environment remains "volatile," at a time when the temporary factors supporting economic activity during the first half of the year began to decline.
It explained that the upward revision reflects the resilience of the global economy in recent months, but warned that growth will remain on a downward path, declining from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and then to 3.1 percent in 2026. The Fund expects advanced economies to achieve growth of about 1.5 percent, compared to more than 4 percent for emerging and developing economies.
Regarding global inflation, the report predicted that it will continue to decline gradually, but will remain above the target in the United States, with the risks of rising remaining, while it remains weak in other regions of the world.
The IMF also warned that economic risks tend towards the negative direction, pointing out that the persistence of uncertainty, the growth of protectionist policies, and the lack of labor, in addition to potential financial risks and market fluctuations, may negatively affect the pace of global growth.
The Fund called on policymakers to build confidence by adopting transparent and sustainable economic policies, and to combine trade diplomacy with macroeconomic reforms, along with rebuilding financial reserves and preserving the independence of central banks.
In the details of regional forecasts, the Fund raised its estimates for the growth of the US economy to 2 percent in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026, and also raised its forecasts for the Eurozone to 1.2 percent for the current year before lowering it to 1.1 percent for next year.
In contrast, it kept its forecast for the growth of the Chinese economy at 4.8 percent in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026, while raising its forecast for the Indian economy to 6.6 percent in 2025 and lowering it to 6.2 percent in 2026.
