World population to reach 10 billion by 2080
Hibapress
The world’s population is expected to continue growing for another 50 to 60 years, reaching a peak of about 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024, the UN said in a report released Thursday.
“After this peak, the world population is expected to begin to decline, gradually falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century,” note the authors of this report entitled “World Population Prospects 2024” and presented at a press conference in New York.
Prepared by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the document highlights that one in four people in the world lives in a country whose population has already peaked, noting that in 63 countries and areas, home to 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, the population size peaked before the current year.
In 48 countries and areas, with 10% of the world’s population in 2024, population size is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. In the remaining 126 countries and areas, population would continue to grow through 2054, potentially peaking later in the century or beyond 2100, the same source said.
The report also reveals that the global fertility rate stands at 2.3 live births per woman, down from 3.3 births in 1990. More than half of all countries and regions in the world have fertility below 2.1 births per woman, the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the long term without migration.
In this context, the document indicates that by 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5% of the global total, will be born to mothers under 18, noting that countries with young populations and declining fertility have limited time to benefit economically from a growing concentration of the working-age population.
In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (aged 20 to 64) will increase through 2054, providing a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend. To take advantage of this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government effectiveness, the report’s authors recommend.
The survey also predicts that by 2080, the number of people aged 65 and over will exceed that of children under 18. By the end of the 2070s, the world’s population aged 65 and over is expected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children under 18.
The report also notes that in 50 countries and areas, immigration is expected to mitigate the decline in population size due to low fertility levels and older age structures, noting, however, that in 14 countries and areas already experiencing extremely low fertility, immigration would contribute to population reductions through 2054.
