HIBAPRESS – Follow-up
Demographic indicators reveal profound global transformations taking place in silence; they are less noisy than wars or economic crises, but they are more impactful in shaping the features of the planet's future.
According to data from the "Our World in Data" platform, the number of births in a single African country during 2023 exceeded the total births in the European continent, plus Russia. It is an intense picture of a new demographic reality with the title: decline in the North and rapid rise in the Global South.
In just one year, Nigeria recorded about 7.5 million births, compared to approximately 6.3 million births in Europe and Russia combined. The difference may seem limited at first glance, but in the language of population and economics, it represents a historical shift that reflects two completely opposite paths in demographic growth.
Europe, which for decades formed the center of global economic and political weight, is today facing a silent population crisis. Fertility rates in most of its countries have fallen to levels far below the population replacement rate (2.1 children per woman). Eurostat data indicates that the rate within the European Union has declined to about 1.38 children per woman, the lowest in the continent's history.
This decline is linked to the rising costs of housing and living, the delay in the age of marriage and childbearing, work pressures, and changing priorities of new generations. However, the final result is one: societies that are aging rapidly, an increasing shortage of labor, and increasing pressure on retirement and healthcare systems.
Russia, which is often included in European demographic calculations, is no exception; it too suffers from a decline in the number of births and negative population growth, despite government attempts to stimulate it.
In contrast, Nigeria represents a completely different model. It is the most populous country in Africa and records one of the highest fertility rates globally, with an average exceeding 4.5 children per woman. With a young and wide population base, the country has become one of the largest centers of population growth in the world.
Although these figures reflect remarkable demographic vitality, they are associated with major challenges, as indicators of education, reproductive health, and women's participation in the labor market are still lower than in developed countries, which keeps fertility rates high year after year.
This population boom carries two contradictory faces: on the one hand, it represents a huge economic opportunity if investment is made in education and job creation, in what is known as the "demographic dividend." On the other hand, it may turn into a heavy burden if development policies fail to absorb millions of new young people into the labor market.
International estimates indicate that Nigeria is likely to become the third largest country in the world in terms of population by the middle of the century, after India and China. This shift means that the center of population – and therefore the economy in the future – is gradually moving south, away from Europe, which has long dominated the global scene.
