Heba Press/. Economy
Minister of Economy and Finance Nadia Fattah Al-Alawi said today, Thursday, during a joint meeting of the finance committees of the House of Representatives and the House of Advisors, that the growth of the national economy during the year 2025 is expected to register a relative improvement “to reach 4.6 percent, in light of the approved assumptions.”
Fattah stressed, in a presentation on the execution of the 2024 budget and the general framework for preparing the draft finance law for the year 2025 and overall budget programming for the three years 2025-2027, that this expected percentage “comes after the 3.3 percent expected in 2024 in light of the emergence of signs of global economic recovery and the continued recovery of the national economy.
The minister added, during the meeting chaired by the Chairman of the Council of Advisors, Al-Naam Mayara, in the presence of the Minister Delegate for the Budget, Fawzi Lakjaa, that the growth rate is expected to exceed the target of 4 percent, in the medium term, explaining that “these expectations may be revised in the event of a deterioration in the global growth outlook, particularly in the European Union due to the repercussions of geopolitical tensions or in the event of another year of drought with a below-average agricultural harvest.”
On the other hand, Fattah confirmed that the preparation of the draft finance law for 2025 and the overall budget programming for 2025-2027 enters “a stage in which the government’s work reaches its maximum speed to complete the process of implementing major projects and adherence” to the commitments contained in the government program, in application of the royal directives and in line with the new development model.
Regarding the initial assumptions of the macroeconomic framework 2025-2027, the government official said that the cereal harvest is expected to reach 70 million quintals and the price of a barrel of Brent oil is expected to reach $80, while the price of a ton of butane oil is expected to reach $450 and the dollar exchange rate is expected to reach 9.8 dirhams, while the inflation rate is expected to reach 2 percent.
Regarding the sustainability of public finances, the Minister considered that “an effective budgetary policy and control of the level of indebtedness constitute the cornerstone to ensure financial viability”, stressing the importance of continuing to gradually reduce the budget deficit to maintain the sustainability of public finances.
He noted that the sustainability of public finances is one of the most important pillars of the government’s work, calling for “the need to continue the gradual reduction of the budget deficit in order to ensure a balance between the sustainability of the downloading of reform and development projects” and the improvement of budgetary margins to maintain the immunity of the national economy against potential shocks.
She stressed that “the continuation of the budgetary effort necessary to meet the requirements of economic and social development requires optimal programming of expenditures of all ministerial sectors, taking into account the financial capacities of the State in parallel with the implementation of reforms and the achievement of the desired results.”
Regarding the targeted trajectory of the budget deficit for the three years 2025-2027, the Minister stressed that “the budgetary programming for the next three years is based on the continuation of the adjustment of the trajectory of the budget deficit with the aim of reducing it to 3.5 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026 and 2027.”
Regarding the debt index, the minister said that “based on the evolution of the budget deficit targeted through this comprehensive budget programming, the debt index is expected to continue its downward trend in the medium term, from 69.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2023 to around 66 percent by the end of 2027,” adding that this “will improve its sustainability and rebuild its financial margins to face potential future risks and crises.”
