HIBAPRESS – Shafiq Anouri
An analytical report by Spanish journalist Macarena Gutierrez, published on the "Larazon" website, highlighted the profound transformations that the Moroccan Sahara file has witnessed since 2022, and how Rabat has been able to consolidate its position as an influential regional and international actor, in contrast to the relative decline of the Spanish role in this sensitive file.
The 2022 Transformation: The Major Turning Point
The report, which was published on Saturday, April 4, 2026, agrees that the message sent by the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on March 18, 2022, to King Mohammed VI, in which he adopted the proposal of self-governance proposed by Morocco, constituted a pivotal moment in the conflict's course. This transformation, which was described as a "diplomatic coup," according to the Spanish journalist, redrew the balance of power, not only between Madrid and Rabat, but also on the level of Spain's relations with Algeria.
American Support Strengthens Rabat's Position
The Spanish report links the rise of Moroccan influence to the kingdom's accession to the Abraham Accords, which opened the door for the United States to recognize Morocco's sovereignty over its southern territories during the first term of Donald Trump. The report confirms that this support has not diminished, but has been strengthened in the context of Trump's second term, making Morocco a strategic partner of Washington in North Africa, at a time when Spain's importance has relatively declined due to its differing political positions with the American administration.
Diplomacy of Initiative versus Diplomacy of Reaction
One of the most prominent conclusions of the report is the difference in the methodology of diplomatic work between the two countries, as Morocco relies on a long-term vision, based on initiative and control of the pace, while Spain appears to be in a position of "reaction," where the absence of crises is considered an achievement in itself.
The Ceuta and Melilla File.. Continuous Pressure
The report stops at the border file in the occupied cities of Ceuta and Melilla, considering it one of the most prominent political pressure tools used by Rabat. From the closure of commercial customs in Melilla in 2018, to the management of crossings during the Corona pandemic, and then their gradual reopening after 2022, it appears, according to the analysis, that Morocco deals with this file with a strategic logic that links the economy to sovereignty. In contrast, the statements of the Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares confirm that the situation is "normal," despite the protests of businessmen and the continued stumbling in commercial traffic.
Lobbies and Rising Influence
The report indicates that one of the keys to Moroccan power lies in the activity of its lobbies within the European Union and Washington, where it has exerted a continuous influence for years, supported by a clear vision on issues of sovereignty and investment.
Controversial Statements
In a related context, the report recalls controversial positions issued by Michel Rubin, who called for a repeat of the "Green March" in Ceuta and Melilla, in a proposal that many considered provocative and ignores international balances, especially the role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization "NATO".
Between Partnership and Equality
The report concludes that Spain finds itself today facing a complex equation: it is required to maintain its cooperation with Morocco in vital files such as immigration and security, and at the same time protect its strategic interests. In contrast, it seems that Rabat manages its relationship with Madrid within a long-term vision, which goes beyond the logic of circumstantial crises to building gradual and sustainable influence.
The Balance of Power Shift in the Western Mediterranean
The report presents a clear picture of the shift in the balance of power in the Western Mediterranean, and concludes that Morocco is no longer just a regional partner, but has become an actor capable of imposing its diplomatic pace, benefiting from international alliances, a strategic vision, and multiple pressure tools.
