HIBAPRESS-RABAT-OPEC
Oil prices (Brent) reached an average of $83 per barrel in the first nine months of 2024, up 0.7% year-on-year, supported by supply cuts from OPEC+ and persistent geopolitical risks.
However, Brent prices fell to $74 on average in September, down 8% month-on-month and 21% year-on-year. They fell to 71 dollars on September 10, their lowest level since December 2021. This downward correction is explained by weak Chinese demand and concerns about the global economic outlook, combined with the prospects of excess supply. .
However, this downward pressure is mitigated by OPEC+’s decision to postpone by two months a production increase initially planned for October and by interruptions in production and exports in Libya.
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East at the beginning of October had a limited impact on oil prices (+11% in one week to reach 81 dollars on October 7), as production and oil flows were not immediately affected. .
In terms of prospects, the global oil market should return to a clear surplus in 2025 (i.e. +1.2 mbd), after a balanced balance in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The strong expansion in global supply (+2.1 mbd in 2025 after +0.7 mbd in 2024) would be more than sufficient to cover the moderate increase in demand (+0.95 after +0.9).
The strong rebound in global supply expected in 2025 is attributed to a clear recovery in OPEC+ production (+0.5 after -0.8), combined with continued growth in production from non-OPEC+ countries. ‘OPEC+ (+1.5 after +1.5). Among the latter, the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada would account for almost three-quarters of the gains (+1.0 after +1.1), although the expansion of American production is slowing (+0. 6 after +0.7).
The moderation in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025 results, essentially, from the weakness of Chinese demand (+0.3 after +0.2). After a strong post-pandemic recovery in 2023 (+1.4), demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, has run out of steam due, in particular, to the energy transition which encourages the adoption of ecological vehicles. Furthermore, oil demand should decrease in OECD countries (-0.1 after 0.0) but remain relatively solid in emerging Asia excluding China (+0.4 after +0.5).
Butane gas prices reached an average of $554 per tonne in the first nine months of 2024, down 5% year-on-year, due to moderate demand and firm supply. However, they continue to fluctuate, going from a peak of $600 per tonne in March to a low of $450 in May, before rising to $580 in September and approaching $700 in early October, supported by a recovery of demand before winter and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
