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Hibapress
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) threatens the future of creators in music and audiovisual, by “jeopardizing their income over the next five years”, warns a new study from the French strategy consulting firm “PMP Strategy”.
According to this study, commissioned by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (Cisac), creators in the music sector are expected to lose, by 2028, 24% of their income and 21% in the audiovisual field, i.e. a loss estimated at 22 billion euros cumulative by 2028.
Conversely, the market for both musical and audiovisual content generated by AI should experience “exponential growth, going from 3 billion euros in the next five years to 64 billion euros in 2028”, a windfall which will in no way benefit creators, due to “the substitution effect of AI on their works”, estimates the same source.
The future revenues of generative AI providers will reach annual revenues of 4 billion euros for music (compared to 0.1 billion euros in 2023) and 5 billion euros for audiovisual ( compared to 0.2 billion in 2023).
These revenues are “directly derived from the unauthorized reproduction of creators’ works and represent a transfer of economic value from creators to AI services,” notes the study.
In the music sector, the streaming and music library markets will be “heavily impacted by AI”. By 2028, music produced by generative AI should represent around 20% of the revenues of traditional music streaming platforms and more or less 60% of the revenues of music libraries.
Estimated revenue losses will also be significant for audiovisual creators, according to the study, which estimates that translators and adapters active in dubbing and subtitling will be hardest hit, with a 56% risk of loss. of their income, while screenwriters and directors could see their income cut by 15 to 20%.
“In the absence of a change in the regulatory framework, creators will suffer losses on two fronts: loss of income due to unauthorized use of their works by generative AI models without any form of remuneration and the replacement of their traditional sources of income due to the substitution effect of products generated by AI, which will compete with the works of human creators,” concludes the study.
