Heba Press
In the wake of Hassan Nasrallah’s martyrdom, Hezbollah faces an enormous challenge: filling the gaps in its ranks that have allowed its archenemy, Israel, to destroy its weapons sites, booby trap its radio communications devices and to assassinate its veteran secretary general, whose fate was a carefully guarded secret for years.
Nasrallah’s assassination at the command headquarters on Friday came just a week after Israel detonated hundreds of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies. His assassination was the culmination of a rapid series of strikes that assassinated half of Hezbollah’s leadership council and destroyed its senior military leadership.
In the days leading up to Nasrallah’s assassination and in the hours that followed, more than a dozen sources in Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Syria spoke out and provided details of the damage that Israel had inflicted on the powerful Shiite paramilitary group, particularly on its supply lines and leadership structure. .
All asked that their identities not be revealed due to the sensitivity of the subject.
A source close to Israeli thinking said less than 24 hours before the attack that Israel had spent 20 years focusing its intelligence efforts on Hezbollah and could target Nasrallah whenever it wanted, even if he located at the group’s headquarters.
The source described the intelligence information as “excellent,” without providing details.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle of ministers approved the attack on Wednesday, two Israeli officials said. The strike took place while Netanyahu was in New York to address the United Nations General Assembly.
Nasrallah has avoided public appearances since the 2006 war and has long been cautious. His movements were limited and the circle of people he met was very small, according to a source close to Nasrallah’s security arrangements. The source added that the assassination indicates that his group was infiltrated by spies on behalf of Israel.
A security source close to Hezbollah’s thinking said a week ago that the Shiite leader had become more cautious than usual since the September 17 pager attacks, fearing that Israel might try to kill him. The source inferred this from his absence at the funeral of one of them. leaders and its pre-recording of a speech broadcast a few days ago.
Hezbollah’s media office did not respond to a request for comment for this story. On Saturday, US President Joe Biden called Nasrallah’s assassination a “just measure” for the sake of many of his victims. He said the United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Iranian-backed groups.
Israel says it targeted Nasrallah by dropping bombs on an underground headquarters beneath a residential building in south Beirut.
“This is a major blow and an intelligence failure for Hezbollah,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a veteran expert on Hezbollah affairs at the Swedish Defense University. They knew he was having a meeting. “He was meeting with other leaders and they immediately attacked him. »
Besides Nasrallah, the Israeli military says it has eliminated eight of Hezbollah’s nine senior military commanders this year, most of whom were killed last week. They led units ranging from the Rocket Division to the Radwan Force, the group’s elite military unit.
Approximately 1,500 Hezbollah fighters were injured and maimed following the explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies on September 17 and 18.
Israeli army spokesman Nadav Shoshani told a press briefing on Saturday that the army had obtained “real-time” information about Nasrallah’s meeting with other leaders. Shoshani did not say how they learned about it, but he said the leaders met to plan attacks against Israel.
Brigadier General Amichai Levin, commander of Israel’s Hatzerim Air Base, told reporters that dozens of munitions hit the target within seconds.
“The operation was complex and planned for a long time,” Levin added.
exhausted
Hezbollah has demonstrated its ability to quickly replace its leaders, and Hachem Safi al-Din, Nasrallah’s cousin, has long been a candidate to succeed him. It is also a religious person like him who wears the black turban which indicates that he is a descendant of the prophet Mohammed.
A European diplomat, commenting on the group’s approach, said: “If you kill one, a new one appears.” »
The group will continue to fight and, according to US and Israeli estimates, numbered around 40,000 fighters before the current escalation, in addition to large weapons stockpiles and a vast network of tunnels near Israel’s borders.
The Shiite paramilitary group was established in Tehran in 1982. It is the most powerful member of the so-called axis of resistance against Israel and a party in its own right that is of regional importance.
But the blows she received over the last ten days have weakened her financially and morally.
Thanks to the Iranian support it received for decades, before the current conflict, Hezbollah was among the most heavily armed irregular armies in the world with an arsenal of 150,000 missiles, missiles and drones, according to US estimates.
According to Israeli estimates, this is 10 times the size of the arsenal it had in 2006 during its last war with Israel.
Over the past year, more weapons from Iran have flowed into Lebanon, along with large amounts of financial aid, according to a source close to Hezbollah thinking.
There were few detailed public assessments available regarding the extent of damage to the arsenal following last week’s Israeli attack, which hit Hezbollah strongholds in the Bekaa Valley, far from the Lebanese border. with Israel.
A Western diplomat in the Middle East said before Friday’s attack that Hezbollah had lost between 20 and 25 percent of its missile capabilities in the ongoing conflict, including hundreds of Israeli strikes last week. The diplomat provided no evidence or details of his assessment.
An Israeli security official said a “very good portion” of Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles had been destroyed, without providing further details.
In recent days, Israel has targeted more than a thousand Hezbollah targets. Asked about the army’s long lists of targets, the security official said Israel had accompanied Hezbollah’s capacity building for two decades with preparations to prevent it from launching missiles, in support of the system. Iron Dome air defense which often shoots down missiles. fired on Israel.
Israeli officials say the fact that Hezbollah has only been able to fire 200 rockets per day over the past week is evidence that its capabilities have declined.
Contact Iran
Before the strike targeting Nasrallah, three Iranian sources said Tehran planned to send more missiles to Hezbollah in preparation for a prolonged war.
The first Iranian source said the weapons to be sent included short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, including Iranian Zelzal missiles and an advanced, precise version known as the Fateh 110.
It was not possible to access the sources after Nasrallah’s assassination.
Despite Iran’s desire to provide military support, the two other Iranian sources confirmed that it did not wish to become directly involved in a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. The rapid escalation of hostilities over the past week follows a year of skirmishes parallel to the war in Gaza.
Iranian media reported on Saturday, citing a state television report, that the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Abbas Nilforoushan, was killed yesterday in Israeli strikes on Beirut.
A senior Syrian military intelligence source added that Hezbollah may need some warheads and missiles, in addition to drones and missile parts, to replace those destroyed by Israeli strikes on Lebanon last week.
In the past, Iranian supplies reached Hezbollah by air and sea. A source at the Lebanese Ministry of Public Works and Transport told Reuters the ministry asked an Iranian plane on Saturday not to enter Lebanese airspace after Israel warned air traffic controllers at Beirut airport that he would use “force” if the plane landed.
The source added that it is not yet clear what exactly was on board the plane.
An Iranian security official said last week that land corridors are currently the best way to transport missiles, their parts and drones across Iraq and Syria with the help of armed groups allied to Tehran in those areas. two countries.
But the Syrian military source says Israeli surveillance operations with drones and strikes targeting truck convoys have undermined this route. In June, Reuters reported that Israel had stepped up attacks on arms depots and supply routes in Syria this year to weaken Hezbollah ahead of any war.
In August, an Israeli drone struck weapons hidden in commercial trailers in Syria, according to the source. Last week, the Israeli military said its warplanes had bombed unspecified infrastructure used to transport weapons to Hezbollah on the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Joseph Votel, a former general who led U.S. forces in the Middle East, said Israel and its allies could now easily intercept any missiles Iran sends overland to Hezbollah.
“Frankly, this might be a risk they are willing to take,” he added.
