Diesel and gasoline: the variation in sales prices, international quotations and weighted purchasing costs varies depending on the product between periods of the same year


The Competition Council in a Report relating to the monitoring of commitments made by wholesale distribution companies for Diesel and Petrol within the framework of transactional agreements concluded with the Council specifies that the level of correlation between the variation in sales prices , international quotes and weighted purchasing costs vary depending on the product (diesel or gasoline) and between periods of the same year.

For diesel, there is a high positive correlation between the variation of international quotations, fluctuations in purchasing costs and variations in stocks, to the extent that the correlation coefficient is around 0.88, as well for the sale price/quotations ratio than that of sale price/purchase cost.

For gasoline, the level of correlation remains relatively low, as it stands at nearly 0.62 for the sales price/quotations ratio and 0.78 for that of the sales price/purchase cost, this level of correlation varies between periods of the same year given that the repercussion of variations in quotations and weighted purchasing costs on sales prices at the national level occurs, for certain periods, at different rates.

Also, it was noted during these periods, a time lag to impact these variations, either by smoothing the repercussion of the increase in weighted purchasing costs on the selling price over several periods, or by delaying the application of variations on the sale price in the event of a drop in quotations and the purchase cost.

This observation can be explained, on the one hand, by the stock effect which forces operators, in the event of a drop, to sell off the stock of fuels purchased previously at higher prices and, on the other hand, by effects catch-up between periods of increase and decrease.

This logic of catching up and readjustment is confirmed in the evolution of gross margins, which experienced two distinct periods in 2023. On the one hand, the first half of the year, characterized by low gross margin levels with an average of 0.40 DH/L for diesel and 1.10 DH/L for gasoline. On the other hand, the second half, where operators consolidated their gross margin levels as compensation by applying levels higher than those of the first half, i.e. 1.12 DH/L for diesel and 1.64 DH/L for diesel. L for gasoline.

Remember that the Competition Council, meeting as a college on November 13, 2023, approved the transaction agreements concluded with nine companies active in the markets for the supply, storage and distribution of diesel and gasoline and their professional organization.

These agreements provide, in addition to the payment of a settlement fine, the subscription, by each of the companies concerned as well as their professional organization, to a package of behavioral commitments aimed at responding to the competition concerns raised by the Council and, consequently , improve the competitive functioning of the hydrocarbon market.

Among these commitments, the communication by each of the companies concerned of quarterly reporting allowing the monitoring of the supply, storage and distribution activity of diesel and gasoline.

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