HCP: national economic activity would show growth of 2.7% in 2024, driven by improving activity in Germany and France


Overall and taking into account a 4.1% drop in agricultural added value, national economic activity would show growth of 2.7%, in the second quarter of 2024, in annual variation, instead of +2 .3% a year earlier.

In detail, the institution forecasts prospects for the global economy for the second quarter of 2024 with moderate growth of around 2.5%. Business surveys, as well as PMI indices, forecast more rigorous activity in services compared to the manufacturing sector; industrial production having stagnated outside China in recent months, with divergent developments between countries.

Economic growth should continue to be relatively strong in most emerging countries and moderate in the major economies. Consumer confidence should remain degraded compared to its trend level in many advanced economies and in China, but should continue to hold up better in emerging economies.

Economic growth should stand at +2.4%, at an annual rate, in the United States in the second quarter of 2024, driven by the expansion of public spending, while in the euro zone, growth should accelerate slightly. to reach +0.6%, driven by the improvement in activity in Germany and France.

The outlook for growth in world trade should remain better oriented, benefiting from the upward turn in the production of semiconductors and electronic products in Asia and the strengthening of sales of motor vehicles.

Foreign demand addressed to Morocco would thus gradually improve and foreign trade would weigh less heavily on national economic growth than in the first quarter of 2024, with a contribution reduced to -3.1 points instead of -3.9 points. the previous quarter.

Exports are expected to show an increase of 9.1%, benefiting from the revival of foreign demand, mainly European.

At the same time, imports should continue at a brisk pace, showing an increase of 14.3%, against a backdrop of rising food bills and the continued recovery in demand for equipment.

Domestic demand would remain the basis of national economic growth in the second quarter of 2024. Gains in purchasing power, enabled by the decline in inflation, and the intensified use of savings would support a 2.6% increase in household consumption.

Investment spending should maintain its momentum thanks to the strengthening of public spending and the continued effort to equip businesses, in a context of falling import prices for industrial capital goods. Conversely, household investments in housing should remain in decline, in a context of persistent high credit costs compared to the period before 2022.

Under these conditions, value added excluding agriculture would show an increase of 3.7%, year-on-year. The secondary branches should continue their recovery at a rate of 5.3%, thanks in particular to the continued recovery of the extractive industries and construction.

Manufacturing production should remain well oriented, benefiting from more vigorous external demand for the chemical and transport equipment branches. The pace of growth in industrial activity could, however, slow down compared to the start of the year, due to the weak momentum in textiles and the agri-food industry.

As for services, their growth rate should remain at around 3%, driven mainly by accommodation activities and non-market services.

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