Oil: Demand growth “is currently slowing down”

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Growth in demand for oil “is currently slowing down” due to the electrification of the automobile fleet and the end of post-covid consumption catching up, the International Energy Agency said ( IEA) in its monthly report.

“Growth in global oil demand “continues to run out of steam” and is expected to fall to 1.2 million barrels per day this year and to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025,” the Agency said on Friday. of energy of the OECD based in Paris.

“With the post-Covid rebound now largely complete, and vehicle efficiency gains and the expansion of the electric car fleet acting as additional brakes on oil demand, growth in 2024 and 2025 is slowing,” he said. added the IEA.

These forecasts suggest “a peak in consumption for this decade”, affirmed the IEA in accordance with its previous analyses.

In the first quarter, oil demand increased by 1.6 million barrels per day, compared to more than 3 million barrels per day in the middle of last year, the IEA noted.

The Agency also observes that despite “roughly equivalent” aviation activity, the demand for fuel for air transport “decreased by more than 6% in the second half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2019”.

Meanwhile, global demand is expected to reach a record high of 103.2 million barrels per day. On the supply side, global production in 2024 is expected to increase by 770 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d, mainly driven by non-OPEC+ countries, led by the United States.

Non-OPEC+ production will increase by 1.6 mb/d, while that of OPEC+ could fall by 820 mb/d if the cartel of oil exporting countries and their allies maintains its voluntary cuts.

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