This article was automatically translated from HIBAPRESS, the Arabic version:
Hibapress
Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) strengthens its accommodating monetary milestone, which reflects its commitment to economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global context, indicates Attijari Global Research (AGR) in its recent “Research Report-Fixed Income”.
“BAM is accelerating its accommodating course, thus confirming its desire to support economic growth in an increasingly unstable global context marked in particular by geopolitical tensions, the risks of return of inflation and the deceleration of growth”, explains AGR in this report entitled “Bank Al-Maghrib: an inflation-crossed arbitration which promises to be more delicate on the medium term”.
As anticipated by the AGR scenario of decrease in the key rate in 2025, BAM decided to reduce its key rate during its 1st monetary policy meeting of the year 2025 for the 3rd time since June 2024 to 2.25%, recalls the same source.
On the other hand, while this decision stands out of step with the consensus of market operators around a status quo, it remains online with the international monetary trend. In view of the new inflation forecasts, AGR experts anticipate a continuation of the drop in the key rate in 2025 to a balance rate to 2%. It is, moreover, a scenario which could be brought to readjust in the event of the realization of international inflationist risks.
In detail, inflation should remain generally mastered in 2025 to 2% at the local level. On the one hand, the latest national precipitation and the programmed cancellation of Eid Al-Adha slightly reduce the harmful effects of the current water crisis on food prices.
On the other hand, the start of gas decompensation and social dialogue within the framework of the 2025 finance law should have a limited effect on inflation, according to experts.
This remains impacted by the drop in energy prices internationally with a Brent price below $ 70/barrel as well as deflationary budgetary measures in favor of supporting household purchasing power.
At the same time, specialists note that the central bank is no exception to the world’s accommodative monetary trend and continues to support the economy in the face of the new investment era in Morocco.
“This is a historical effort of more than 1,700 billion dirhams on the next five -year period in a context of controlling inflation on the medium term,” said Agr.
This is expected to decrease the threshold of 2% to 1.8% in 2026, granting a real room for maneuver to BAM to lower its key rate in the future more.
According to the estimates of specialists, each drop in master rate of 25 base points would generate a budgetary savings for the treasury in charge of annual interest surrounding 300 million dirhams.
