HIBAPRESS – Abdellatif Baraka
For more than fifty years, the Moroccan Sahara file has remained one of the most complex regional conflicts in Africa and the Arab world. A conflict in which politics intertwined with history, legitimacy with sovereignty, and identity with international legality.
But the rapid diplomatic developments during the last two years indicate a fundamental shift in the international position, making many observers talk about "international justice for Morocco" in its historical case, supported by Security Council resolutions and new United Nations positions.
– From Spanish colonialism to the autonomy initiative
The roots of the conflict began in the mid-1970s, when Spain withdrew from the Sahara under the "Madrid Accords" in 1975.
In the same year, King Hassan II launched the "Green March," in which more than 350,000 Moroccans participated to demand the recovery of the "southern provinces," to become, as it was throughout history, a symbol of national sovereignty.
However, the Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, declared the establishment of the "Sahrawi Republic" in 1976, and armed clashes broke out that continued until the signing of a ceasefire agreement in 1991, under the supervision of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
Since then, the file has remained stagnant between proposals for self-determination and attempts at a referendum, until Morocco proposed the autonomy initiative in 2007 as a final political solution, granting the Sahara population the management of their local affairs under Moroccan sovereignty.
– Diplomatic shift: from neutrality to recognition
The recent years have witnessed a deep change in international positions towards Morocco's proposal, including that the Security Council renewed its mandate for the "MINURSO" mission in resolutions 2703 (2023) and 2756 (2024), stressing that the solution must be "political, realistic, practical, and sustainable."
This formula, which has been repeated in all resolutions since 2018, is considered an implicit recognition that the autonomy proposal is the most serious and credible option, as described by the texts of the Council itself.
The Council also approved in its last resolution the involvement of Algeria as a main party in the negotiations, after it was previously treated as a supporting party only, which is considered a clear diplomatic gain for Rabat.
The United Nations, through its Secretary-General António Guterres and his personal envoy Staffan de Mistura, reiterated that the UN path is based on "round tables" that include Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, and the Polisario, with the aim of reaching a permanent and agreed-upon political solution.
– International recognition: towards "justice for Morocco"
In the last two years, the wave of international recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over its southern provinces has increased, which some analysts described as "the most prominent geopolitical shift in North Africa in decades."
The United States recognized Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara in 2020, and the Biden administration renewed its commitment to the same position with support for the United Nations process.
Spain, the former colonial power, changed its historical position in March 2022 when its Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, described the autonomy initiative as "the most serious, realistic, and credible basis for the solution."
France, in July 2024, officially announced through its foreign minister the "recognition of Paris of Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara," which resonated widely in Europe.
Several African and Arab countries – including the Emirates, Bahrain, Senegal, and Chad – opened consulates in the cities of Laayoune and Dakhla, which constituted a practical affirmation of Moroccan sovereignty on the ground.
– United Nations resolutions: balance between realism and self-determination
Despite the clear shift in the international position, the United Nations still affirms in its General Assembly resolutions, the last of which was issued in October 2025, that the Moroccan Sahara remains an "non-self-governing territory," and that the right to self-determination is a basic principle.
But what is striking is that the language of the resolutions no longer speaks of a "referendum" as the only option, but rather of a consensual political solution that takes into account the aspirations of the population and takes into account the proposals of the parties.
This linguistic change in United Nations documents is considered by experts to be a strategic shift that practically recognizes Morocco's sovereignty without prejudice to the legitimacy of the United Nations organization.
– Diplomatic justice does not mean the end of the conflict
A number of researchers describe the current stage as "a point of diplomatic justice for Morocco":
The Kingdom has been able to transform a file that was presented for decades as a "colonialism" issue into a file of "consensual political solution," which is a structural shift in the international perspective.
But this does not mean the end of the conflict entirely, as the Polisario Front is still clinging to the demand for independence, and Algeria continues to provide its political support to it, while the United Nations remains committed to its role as a mediator awaiting the final Security Council decision this Friday, October 31.
– Morocco in a position of strength and responsibility
After half a century of tensions, it seems that Morocco is in a stronger diplomatic position than ever before, as the Security Council resolutions, the positions of the United Nations, and the shift in European and Arab policies all go in one direction: the realistic recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over its southern provinces.
