HIBAPRESS-RABAT
The global economy is expected to continue its slowdown in 2024, recording limited growth of 2.7% instead of the 2.9% expected in 2023 and 3.3% in 20221, in a context characterized by the recurrence of economic and geopolitical shocks. The effects of monetary policy tightening, the contraction of budgetary resources and persistent uncertainty are expected to limit the expected growth rate of the global economy. Moreover, dynamism in emerging countries and sluggish growth in advanced countries are expected to further widen the growth gap.
In the United States, GDP growth is expected to decline to 1.5% in 2024 after 2.4% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2022. Domestic demand is expected to be moderate, penalized by the exhaustion of excess savings and by restrictive financing conditions, which should impact the dynamics of the labor market. Fiscal policy is expected to tighten in order to reduce the budget deficit that is expected to have widened in 2023 due to the combined effect of low tax revenues and high spending on social programs. Inflation is expected to decline to 2.8% in 2024 after 3.9% in 2023 and a peak of 8.9% in 2022, while the decline in core inflation is expected to remain slow. In this wake, the FED is considering a relaxation of monetary policy during 2024, after having raised its rates eleven times since March 2022.
In the euro area, the combination of the continued effect of the inflationary shock and monetary tightening on household purchasing power and business costs is expected to weigh on the expansion of economic activity. Growth in this area is expected to record a timid recovery of 0.9% in 2024, after a sharp slowdown to 0.6% in 2023, penalized by the sluggish economic situation in the German economy, which is vulnerable in terms of energy supplies and outlets for its industry. Furthermore, the pronounced dynamism of the Spanish economy compared to the average for the area is mainly explained by a delayed post-Covid catch-up effect and by the significant weight of services in the structure of its economy.
Emerging and developing economies are expected to remain broadly dynamic with growth rates virtually stagnating at around 4% in 2024, although regional divergences are hidden.
In China, the promising post-Covid recovery at the beginning of 2023 would have been hampered by a range of factors. Domestic demand would have been slowed by the deterioration in household and investor confidence, in a context of persistent real estate crisis. For its part, foreign trade would have been hampered by weak demand following weak growth in Europe and geopolitical tensions with the United States. The recovery measures taken by the government for 2024 remain cautious and constrained by the high volume of debt. Thus, growth should be limited to 4.7% in 2024 after 5.2% in 2023.
In India, the surge in services exports and public investment, accompanied by the resilience of private consumption, should continue to stimulate the economy in 2024 and partly offset the decline in exports. Thus, the country’s growth, although slowing, should remain robust at a rate of 6.1% in 2024 after 6.3% in 2023. In Russia, growth should remain positive at 1.1% in 2024 after 1.3% in 2023 thanks to vigorous domestic demand and the resilience of energy exports redirected to large emerging economies. However, in Brazil, the expected decline in commodity prices and external demand, particularly from China, should impact the economy, which should achieve limited growth of 1.8% in 2024 instead of 3% in 2023.
