HIBAPRESS – Abdellatif Baraka
Rapid regional developments indicate the possibility of the conflict with Iran moving into a more complex stage, a new phase in which the confrontation may take an indirect form relying on local forces within Iranian territory. In this context, movements by a number of Kurdish organizations opposing the Iranian regime have emerged in recent weeks, coinciding with notable American statements that brought back the scenario of "proxy war."
During the past February, six Iranian Kurdish opposition organizations announced the formation of a new political and military alliance, a step that observers considered an attempt to unify efforts in preparation for a turbulent regional phase. This alliance includes Kurdish forces that have historically been active in the mountainous areas adjacent to the border between Iran and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where these organizations have had bases and training centers for years. These moves came in a sensitive political and military context, especially after statements by former US President Donald Trump, in which he expressed his support for any military move that Kurdish factions might undertake inside Iran, stressing that he would not oppose such a step if those forces decided to confront the Revolutionary Guard forces and the Iranian Islamic Army. These statements have renewed the discussion about the possibility of Washington relying on local actors to weaken Iranian military influence without direct involvement in a ground war. Analysts believe that the current timing may give Iranian Kurds a strategic opportunity they have not had for decades, given the preoccupation of the Iranian military establishment with multiple fronts and the increasing military and political pressure on Tehran. In addition, the strikes that targeted sites associated with the Revolutionary Guard at different times contributed to weakening part of its capabilities in some border areas. This scenario is based on a model that has become familiar in contemporary conflicts, where major powers rely on supporting local or regional movements to achieve their strategic goals. If this equation is realized, the Kurdish factions may turn into a ground force moving inside the Iranian Kurdish regions, in exchange for external political and logistical support. In contrast, Tehran recognizes the sensitivity of these moves, as it has previously accused armed Kurdish groups of planning operations inside the country, and has carried out several preemptive strikes against the sites of these factions near the western borders. The Iranian authorities constantly emphasize that they will not allow the border areas to turn into a platform to threaten their internal security. Between these intertwined calculations, the question remains: Will the Kurdish card turn into a new front in the conflict with Iran, or will regional balances prevent the explosion of a wide ground confrontation inside Iranian territory? The answer to this question will remain hostage to future field developments and the extent to which the concerned parties are ready to move from the stage of political pressure to the stage of open conflict.
