Five key findings from a systematic review of papers on modeling the energy transition in Africa


Here are the top five findings from a systematic review of peer-reviewed articles on modeling the energy transition in Africa, based on models and scenarios:

Modeling the energy transition in Africa is a recent but growing phenomenon, with geographical disparities: 60% of the research was carried out in the last three years, and more than a third of this research focused on the two most major African economies, South Africa and Nigeria. More than half of African countries received no attention in this research.

2-The models are often oversimplified: Despite the complexities involved, only a handful of scenarios are generally presented, largely focused on the 2030 or 2050 horizons, with little or no consideration of the social and political considerations that may hinder the implementation of climate solutions.

3-Economic development is rarely at the forefront: Only 7% of documents consider development as a central outcome alongside energy and climate objectives.

4-Critical climate technologies are underrepresented: Technologies such as carbon capture, nuclear or hydrogen, which are likely to play a key role in enabling a low or zero carbon future carbon, are among the least taken into account.

5-Research on the African continent is done from afar: Nearly two thirds of research was produced without an author based on the African continent.

This is what could be the path towards a more productive and development-centered climate approach in Africa, with the need to support efforts to model the energy transition in Africa, to promote the analysis of a more complete range of scenarios energy transition and development, to develop and support local research capacities and to pursue a research framework that meaningfully integrates climate and economic objectives.

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