This article was automatically translated from HIBAPRESS, the Arabic version:
This article was automatically translated from Hibapress, the Arabic version:
Heba Press
Two days before the first meeting of the Bank Al-Maghrib Council for the year 2025, a consensus appears between various analyzes in favor of maintaining the main interest rate of the Central Bank at its current level.
After having reduced the main interest rate by 25 base points to 2.50% at its fourth meeting in 2024, this time, the Banque du Maroc council can decide to maintain its stability. It seems that this decision is supported by the development of the inflation rate, which is always in accordance with the objective of stabilizing prices, in parallel with continuous doubts surrounding economic prospects in the medium term, in particular internationally.
According to High-Commissariat data for planning, the inferential price number was recorded during consumption in January 2025, an increase of 2% compared to the same month compared to the previous year. The recent news memorandum issued by the High Commissioner for the Planning of the Invidence Inventory Consumer Consumption said that this change is mainly due to the high price of food prices (plus 3.3%) and the price of non-food product prices (plus 1.1%).
In addition to this, the Al -Maghrib bank said that the growth of bank loans granted to the non -financial sector accelerated to 3.3% in January 2025, against 2.6% in the previous month. This acceleration reflects an increase in loans granted both to companies and non -financial families.
Loans addressed to private companies increased by 1.2% after 0.6%, while loans for public companies increased by 8.6% against 7.3% in December 2024, while families granted to families accelerated 2% after having recorded 1.7% in the previous month.
Almost consensus of investors to maintain the current situation
The economist and specialist in exchange policy, Omar Baku, believes that the Al -Maghrib bank should maintain the main interest rate unchanged, preferring to maintain the current situation concerning monetary policy. According to him, this decision can be justified in the absence of inflationary pressures and the improvement of economic prospects.
Baku explained: “The expectations of inflation for the year 2025 show a downward trend, in particular thanks to the recent precipitation which improve agricultural production forecasts, and the increase in supply would contribute to the low prices of agricultural products, and thus cover inflation. »»
On the other hand, Baku added that the prospects for economic growth seem promising, as confirmed by the expectations of the International Monetary Fund, the High Commission for Planning and the Economic and Financial Report accompanying financial law, and in this context, the Al-Maghrib bank will not have to reduce the interest rate in order to support economic activity.
The expert also stressed that critical “prudence” supports the possibility of maintaining the stable main interest rate, because repeated adjustments can confuse market expectations and confuse the vision of economic actors, which requires a conservative approach by maintaining its price at 2.5%.
In the same context, the AGR Center (AGR) mentioned in its report, “Research Report-Strategy”, that there is “almost unanimity” among investors in Morocco to maintain the main interest rate for banking Morocco at its current level.
Thus, and on the basis of the results of the survey carried out by the research unit of the commercial group Wafa Bank, which included a sample of 35 investors among the most influential in the Moroccan financial market, the possibility of maintaining the main interest rate is 94%, compared to 6% for the possibility of reducing it by 25 basic points, while raising it.
According to the investor category, reactions analyzes reveal that “local institutions” may be able to maintain the main interest rate without a change of 91%, against 9% to reduce it by 25 basic points.
As for the “reference players”, they gave a possibility of 93% to maintain the main interest rate, compared to 7% to reduce it by 25 basic points, while “foreign investors” and “self-espools” agree unanimous to reduce the main interest rate by 25 basic points.
With the date approaching the first meeting of the Banque du Maroc council for this year, it seems that the stability of the main interest rate is widely awaited by investors. However, can the central bank in the light of a global economic environment which are not sure to make an unexpected decision? There is no doubt that the case will be decided during the next council.
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